Arguably the biggest potential issue facing the fantasy industry right now is something that we all hope will never actually become a real issue.

It’s the NFL labor situation, a subject about which we’ve all been pretty tired of hearing for two years or so now. The past NFL season was played with no salary cap, and when the current league year ends on March 3, there will be no operating agreement between the league and the players union.

In real terms, that means free agency can’t open. It means that teams won’t be able to sign their draft picks. It means no practices (or games) until the two sides quit publicly bitching and work things out. And although the gripes might seem trivial to many outsiders who just see a bunch of millionaires quibbling over how to split a dollar, the unrest is very real to any company that puts the wraps on one fantasy football season only to prepare for the next.

To that end, two sessions at this week’s Fantasy Sports Trade Association winter conference in Las Vegas dealt with the key questions.

First up was Blake Baratz and Andrew Brandt to help break down the key gaps that must be bridged. Baratz, the founder and president of the Institute for Athletes, is tied to the issue even more than we fantasy folks because he’s an agent for NFL players such as Green Bay TE Jermichael Finley. Brandt is a former vice president for the Packers, among other pro football jobs, and now runs the National Football Post — where he has been steadily tracking and covering the situation.

Two key points came from the Baratz-Brandt panel: Five weeks is a long time to iron out bargaining issues, and none of us ultimately knows how things will go.

The five-week timeframe refers roughly to the stretch remaining between now and the March 3 end of the league year. Brandt and Baratz agreed that, although the sides don’t appear close right now, there is a lot of time left for them to meet at the table and hammer out a new deal before the current collective bargaining agreement expires. Both said they’re optimistic that a new deal will arrive without any interruption to the 2011 season, to the point even that they agreed on a rough guess of about a 65 percent chance that a new CBA will be in place by the NFL draft at the end of April.

Of course, Baratz and Brandt also agreed on the completely arbitrary nature of attaching such a percentage. There might be plenty of time left, but the deal will only get done if the league and the players sit together at the table and get it done. The rest of us can only watch/ignore and pray for no more ridiculous initiatives such as “Let Us Play Day.”

Baratz and Brandt also ran through some of the key sticking points in negotiations, but those details are more than we need to get into here. Fantasy companies have a different set of questions, and Fantasy Sports Writers Association president Mike Beacom led a panel later on Tuesday to address them.

As I said at the top, anyone whose business relies heavily on fantasy football — and pretty much anyone who likes the NFL — hopes that this whole issue disappears before it impacts us at all. Unfortunately, we have to at least think about the possibility of the 2011 league calendar getting disrupted and what that might mean for us.

The Magazine

First up are the fantasy football magazines. Putting a publication on newsstands in June or July means generating most the content through April and May and planning everything out before then.

Digger Turnbull of XML Team related the story of how his Canada-based Fantasy Sports Services — acquired by XML Team early last year — decided that it couldn’t afford to publish its annual hockey magazine heading into the 2004-05 season that was ultimately eliminated by a lockout. Instead, they decided to produce a free PDF version.

We would all like to think that the NFL and NFLPA would never allow this fight to eat into the regular season, and, indeed, all involved have much more to lose than their hockey counterparts did. If the league still lacks a CBA at press time, though, do you go ahead with your usual magazine procedure? That’s a question each company will have to answer for itself.

Of course, even if no games are lost, a disruption to the usual schedule will greatly impact the content. Free agency can’t open without a new agreement, and Brandt pointed out on Twitter Friday that last year’s cap-free, altered rules will mean 500 free agents whenever the window opens. You know where Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will play their games next season, but how much prognostication can be done with so many guys facing potential address changes?

Online

The magazine folks will feel it the most, but the impact would no doubt make its way to the Web as well.

David Dodds co-owns Footballguys.com, which relies on Web subscriptions to drive its annual revenues. Should labor unrest linger into the summer months and delay the start of on-field action, there’s little doubt subscription sales would wait, too. Dodds said that one option in such a case, because much of his writing staff is paid on a per-article basis, would be to start paying in credits. Those credits would represent a percentage of subscription sales and thus grow as subscribers return.

From a sheer production standpoint, of course, the longer the no-CBA period, the smaller the eventual window for season-prep advice. A flurry of free-agent signings and late-arriving rookies would mean a crunch in evaluation time and even later nights at what is already the busiest time of year for many content producers.

To that end, RotoWire president Peter Schoenke added that it would actually be tougher to prepare for and deal with a shortened training camp and preseason than for no season at all. The lack of season obviously wouldn’t help with fantasy revenues, but it would at least eliminate a lot of work.

The panel agreed that the worst case would be an NFL season proceeding with replacement players, but such a scenario seems highly unlikely, so let’s ignore it for now.

The Games

So we’ve gone over content, but what about the games — particularly the pay-to-play varieties?

Jeff Thomas — CEO of World Fantasy Games, which operates football contests via RapidDraft.com and SportsBuff.com (and owns and operates this site) — said that smart business folks will have a refund policy in place ahead of time. He also said that his company likely won’t collect entry fees until it’s clear that the NFL season will happen.

Obviously, free-game sites wouldn’t have to face the refund issue, but everyone would certainly be pinched by the large traffic drop that would follow the elimination of NFL games. It would also be interesting to see how fantasy players would react to a shortened NFL season: how much of the crowd wouldn’t return when the games did. Thomas pointed to the weekly version of RapidDraft, part of a new and growing market of short-term fantasy games that would be ready to start whenever NFL action did.

Couldn’t We All Go to College?

The question was raised of whether fantasy college football could see a boom if the 2011 NFL season went bust. The consensus: No.

Fantasy college football games would probably garner more players by way of the displaced NFL-based leagues, but they wouldn’t provide an automatic substitute. The game is still a different one, from the player universe to, in many cases, different league-hosting sites and the lack of preseason games to get familiar with college players.

As Schoenke pointed out, switching from the pro fantasy game to college would still present a learning curve, which is enough to scare off many users.

Please Render All This Moot

The bottom line for all fantasy companies, whether game or content based, is that all scenarios laid out above are at least possible. We all hope that the league and its players solve all their problems and get a new agreement in place before any portion of the 2011 NFL calendar is affected, and that very well might happen. Proceeding as though that is certain, however, would be a mistake.

It might not look like golf weather outside for many of us, but it is in fact golf season.

With the Hyundai Tournament of Champions set to open Thursday, The Golf Channel introduced this week its Fantasy Challenge.

“The Golf Channel reached out to World Fantasy Games to create an innovative, fun and easy-to-play game for their viewers and Web followers,” said WFG CEO Jeff Thomas. “It has been a very productive, collaborative effort since day one and the result is a unique and engaging game.”

The game simply asks you to select three golfers at the beginning of each tournament, earning points when they win money in the tournament. In addition to the full-season version of the game, the Golf Channel will also award prizes to the winners in each of three season segments (Kick-Off, Spring and Summer) and weekly at the end of each tournament — allowing users to join at any time.

The Golf Channel also promises to pit a panel of its experts against those playing the game, with analysis and promotion carrying over from the GC website to its broadcasts.

Golf can often prove a fairly niche fantasy sport, but the ease of this setup caters to players at any level, while the format allows those who might only follow the majors to place their focus there. Of course, the biggest benefit of fantasy can often be the fact that it gives fans a reason to care about games or events in which they might not otherwise be personally invested.

Thomas sees plenty of potential for benefit in this case.

“We think it’s going to be a hit and break all records for participation when compared to past games from the Golf Channel,” he said.

By Jeff Thomas

The split with Fanball is just a bump in the road for Charlie Wiegert. He’ll be back, although he’ll probably spend more time on the beach and with his family. He deserves it.

I have a unique view of Charlie’s career — as a long-time competitor. Ali and Frazier? Maybe not, but we’ve been in the ring together more than once.

Charlie and his partners launched CDM about nine months before I opened Sports Buff in the early 90’s. We battled often for game-management deals and watched a long, long list of competitors come and go. CDM actually made an offer to purchase Sports Buff in 1999. It didn’t work out, but I was able to get to know Charlie better during the process. He’s a great guy, he loves this industry, and he has worked hard to help it grow and prosper.

His contributions are extensive. In fact, most current industry operators have no idea how extensive. Even before the FSTA was created, Charlie organized meetings in St. Louis to begin the communication process between companies in a very young industry. He and CDM invested heavily and led efforts to help clarify legal and licensing issues, years before the FSTA or the MLBAM lawsuit. Without these early efforts, many of today’s content companies and game operators — small, medium and large — would not exist.

He has followed that up with 12 years of devotion to the FSTA Board, continuing to contribute to industry growth for a second decade.

This is an odd set of events with Fanball. I think Fanball is in trouble. Charlie’s not. He’ll be fine.

(Jeff Thomas is an 18-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry, fellow founding member of the FSTA — for which he served a three-year term as president — and CEO of World Fantasy Games, which owns and operates this site.)

The explosion in popularity of fantasy sports has been awesome, but one unfortunate effect is the accompanying emergence of frauds trying to make a buck (or a million) by leveraging the “fantasy” label to front a concept it clearly doesn’t fit.

Washington state officials charge that is just what has been going on with the man behind FantasyThunder.com.

David B. Watkins was arrested Thursday in Spokane, Wash., after police raided his home. The raid resulted from an investigation triggered by complaints from Fantasy Thunder users about not getting paid their winnings.

Authorities say Watkins may have operated his site for as long as 10 years, but both reports linked to above seem to highlight the wrong factor in describing the gambling charges . The accusation that Watkins kept 50 percent of the fees paid by his users doesn’t make for an attractive game setup, but it also doesn’t constitute gambling on its own.

To avoid being classified as gambling, any online pay-to-play game must clearly define its prize amounts before the contest start and guarantee those amounts. That’s according to the federal Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, whose Section 132.2(c)(5)(ix) specifically states:

Participation in any fantasy or simulation sports game or educational game or contest in which (if the game or contest involves a team or teams) no fantasy or simulation sports team is based on the current membership of an actual team that is a member of an amateur or professional sports organization (as those terms are defined in 28 U.S.C. 3701) and that meets the following conditions:

(A) All Prizes and awards offered to winning participants are established and made known to the participants in advance of the game or contest and their value is not determined by the number of participants or the amount of any fees paid by those participants.

(B) All winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants and are determined predominantly by accumulated statistical results of the performance of individuals (athletes in the case of sports events) in multiple real-world sporting or other events.

(C) No winning outcome is based-

(1) On the score, point-spread, or any performance or performances of any single real-world team or any combination of such teams, or

(2) Solely on any single performance of an individual athlete in any single real-world sporting or other event.

“Consumers need to be very careful,” said Jeff Thomas, CEO of World Fantasy Games and former president of the FSTA. “In my 18 years in the fantasy sports industry, I’ve seen many fly-by-night companies come and go and they hurt the entire industry with their actions. Consumers and companies considering operating a fantasy game should learn an important lesson from this situation: Work with experienced operators and never use or quote percentage payouts — it’s just the wrong message.”

Thomas points out that FantasyThunder.com is not a member of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, an organization that tries to look out for the integrity of fantasy games and provide guidance for new game operators that might be unfamiliar with gaming regulations.

“The FSTA supports the UIGEA and encourages our companies to follow it,” Thomas said. “Experienced game operators know how to structure games to follow all federal and state laws.”

The Fantasy Thunder site has been shut down (hence the tiny images toward the top of this story being the best we could retrieve), and Watkins reportedly could face five years in prison if convicted.

(Note: World Fantasy Games owns and operates FantasySportsBusiness.com.)